How do you evaluate this year's film market? | Exclusive interview with Zhang Jin

I don't think anyone thought that Gandal can suddenly explode. But it is undeniable that the film did pry open the ambitions of more people.

From "gold" in the blue sea to "gambling" in the red sea. Because of the further widening of the ceiling, more people are involved. But has the approval market been successful this year?

So far, the highest box office in 2018 was Bajrangi Bhaijaan which was released three years ago, and the box office in 285 million was just Gandal change. Similarly, the number of batches this year pretends to erupt, but in fact it is only an illusion created by overstocking in time.

Last year, the cost of approving films and publicity specifications have risen rapidly. In the absence of a significant increase in the number of popular models, this year's rapid development of the film market may be the biggest "illusion" of the film market.

Indian films officially seized the market

Aamir Khan began the era of taking benefit from films

In fact, compared with the past, the excessive stacking of Indian batches is the main reason for creating a "batch bubble".

Because last year, Gandal The popularity of Dad has led to an excessive concentration of Indian batches in this year's batch market. Both in quantity and quality, they are ahead of the batches in other countries. But the development of Indian films may not be as outstanding as expected.

So far, four Indian films have grossed more than '00 million at the box office. Although compared with previous years, the change from "single popular style" to "100 million small group", the change of Indian batch film market is much higher than that of the outside world.

This year, the first trend of Indian films in the domestic market is the increase in quantity. At present, there are seven Indian films that have been released in the country, four of which grossed more than 100 million at the box office. In terms of overall performance, Indian films play a very steady role. 

Since last year, Gandal set off a film watching craze in the mainland, domestic audiences had innate "praise" for Indian films. The introduction of Indian films this year continues the strong realistic style of Indian films themselves and is already a step faster on innate word-of-mouth.

However, unlike in the past, the second trend of Indian films in the domestic market this year is the emergence of split-account films. The highest-grossing Indian film of the year, Secret Superstar was the first Indian film to split the bill, while the box office winner of the Indian film was Bajrangi Bhaijaan. 

It can be said that the emergence of Secret Superstar is of iconic significance for the introduction of Indian films. Because it is no longer a simple high-cost introduction, but a fission of the introduction model: the leap from batches to sub-books. The reason why there has been such a big change is that Gandal broke 1.2 billion of the box office results, itself is no longer the volume of the market for films."

As a result, Zhang Jin, chairman of Joy Pictures, did not hinder confidence that Indian films would enter the cinema in large numbers, even when Sudan box office was slightly poor for many reasons. However, with the precedent of Secret Superstar split film, Zhang Jin believes that the future Amir films are likely to enter the mainland in the form of split accounts.


It can be seen that as the ceiling of the batch market is pushed up, the impact is no longer just on the doubling of the cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars, but on the fission of the batch to the split slice model.

In addition, Bajrangi Bhaijaan has not only won the box office of Indian films with 285 million of the box office, but also the box office champion of all batches this year. The Indian film, which was released three years ago, still has amazing energy.

Because of their strong realistic resonance, Indian films have won the "word-of-mouth bonus" of many fans. This year, due to the gradual decline of low-cost ticket compensation, the decisive role of word-of-mouth has become more important than ever, which undoubtedly gives the films that occupy the highland of word-of-mouth still have a great opportunity. Therefore, high-word-of-mouth Indian films are still an urgent demand in the mainland market, which also means that Indian films are still in the red profit period of introduction.

The head effect of batch film should be further highlighted,

What are the trends in the batch market?

In fact, batch market of last year is not so glamorous.

Last year, the number of films approved reached a record 70, with a total box office of more than 5 billion, and two more films went to the 1 billion club. But the approval market showed obvious polarization last year, with the 10% box office monopolizing more than 70% of the box office.



This year, the trend of reshuffle in the film market is even more obvious. Just the lack of super popular style of "protection", the film market worry exposed no doubt.

So far, there has been no first batch in this year's batch market, which has encountered the ceiling of the box office. I have to say, last year,Gandal and biochemical crisis 6 , two 1 billion batches, do give the market more room to imagine.

But this year, the highest box office performance was Bajrangi Bhaijaan with a cumulative box office of 285 million. So far, the top three box office sales of approved films have only about 200 million box office output. And the 100 million batches are the absolute winners of word-of-mouth in the same period. Therefore, the box office bottleneck in the approval market is the most noteworthy feature of this year.


In addition, the real growth in the batch market this year has not been large, and the pile is due to the excessive concentration of scheduling options. As a result of the increased concentration of films in India this year, the release rhythm of the first film in January created the illusion that the number of batches continued to soar.

But according to the Mao Yan Research Institute, 44 batches were released throughout the year as of the end of the summer season. Even taking into account the "concentrated sprint" in the last two months, the number of approved films did not rise much from a year earlier. Only this year the approval film dares to enter the hot file, in the schedule choice to pile up obviously.


For example, 15 batches of films have been released this summer, which was difficult to appear in previous years. In fact, this also shows another feature of this year's batch market from the side.

Batch film has entered the era of "blockbuster" marketing, and the specification of propaganda has been further improved. In fact, the impact of the film approval boom, on the one hand, is the rapid rise in the cost of introduction, on the other hand, lies in the rapid promotion of specifications.

Last year, whether it was La La Land or Gandal in the head approval of the marketing has been towards the blockbuster." Zhang Jin said that since the La La Land, the company has formed the formation of tens of millions of propaganda funds, extend the publicity cycle, upgrade the publicity specifications.


So this year, in addition to the "seed film" such as Secret Superstar, Amir will be more "Chinese element" publicity preheating.  and other batches will also invite the main creators to come to China and fully sink on the preheating.

Zhang Jin believes: "in the past, the approval of the film was naked, but now it is a heavy payment." This is not to say how much the marketing of batches has changed, it is just a process from scratch. "

Because the approval film for the box office imagination space increases, so although there are still many restrictions in the selection of the schedule, but into the hot file is no longer an example. Under the trend that the whole film market is fully sinking and the head effect is prominent, the box office driving power of the film itself is self-evident.

Because the audience itself has the same base, in the same period and import sub-account, domestic blockbuster competition for market share, then the marketing specifications of the batch film must be synchronized with it.

Batch market is close to the turning point of decline,

Diversity of types and theme innovation will be the core of the competition

This year's film market is more like a super inflection point than last year.

The first is that the box office subsidence of the third and fourth lines has obviously stagnated, and it is easier to catch the first and second line of word-of-mouth films. Secondly, the low price ticket supplement basically receded from the market, and the ticket supplement put in the crowd has undergone essential changes, which will accelerate the speed of the film counterattack or jump into the street. Third, there are three 3 billion, 3 2 billion and 8 1 billion films this year. These 14 films grossed 27.656 billion at the box office, accounting for 52.6% of the total market volume this year.


For the approval of the film, its own adjustment ability is not as sufficient as the domestic film. Therefore, after the super inflection point in the film market, the future development of the film market will still be affected by the aftereffect of the film market.

In the future, the batch market will increase polarization, forcing the approval market to fall back. In fact, the total box office and the average box office of this year's batch market are not very ideal. By the end of August, a total of 44 batches had been released, but only 1.82 billion grossed at the box office, showing a clear downward trend at the average box office.

In Zhang Jin's view, although there was no first batch of films this year, the decline in the average box office still made the batches show the characteristics of polarization. Then the introduction of copyright costs skyrocketing and the rapid increase in publicity costs will lead to the vast majority of batches of films can not achieve profitability.

In addition, for the approval of the film, its core competitiveness itself is a word-of-mouth advantage. But judging from the 100 million batches at the box office this year, the quality standards for batches are even more stringent. So far, Indian films want to score 100 million at the box office, cat's eye audience hit a score of 9 points has become a "qualified line."

However, as high-quality batches are still in an extremely scarce situation, too fast cost increases make batches appear a "virtual high" bubble. Zhang Jin said: "in fact, some films are not worth that much money, on the whole, the quality of this year's batches is not so good." Well, in this case, today this family lost money, tomorrow that family lost money, who will come to you to buy a film in the future? "

Therefore, the future batch market is bound to have a significant cooling.

In addition, this year, the approval market has highlighted the vicious circular chain of high introduction costs-too single type-box office bottlenecks, which will undoubtedly contribute to the rapid burst of the box office bubble.

In Zhang Jin's opinion, this year in the North American market independent film also appeared the outbreak trend, and the domestic word-of-mouth function is also conducive to the high-word-of-mouth film breakthrough. Therefore, for the future film approval development trend, in the type diversification and subject matter innovation dare to try the film, it will certainly become.


This year, the audience is more picky about the film and more rational in the choice of watching the film. The reason why there is no "black horse" in the approval market this year is due to the fact that the approval itself is in the release period of the previous two years, and does not meet the novelty of the audience's desire.

The film market often lags behind the aesthetic changes of the audience. Zhang Jin said that the introduction of La La Land, Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Wonder did not have much optimism, but facts have proved that as long as they dare to try, they have a chance to succeed.


It is understood that at present, Joy Pictures has the largest number of languages and types of films in its hands. Joy Pictures insists on introducing some award-winning films every year, and Roma, which won the Golden Lion at the Venice International Film Festival this year, was bought by Joy Pictures.

This year's batch market, relying on the concentration of quantities in a single region, can no longer cover up the overall hidden worries. However, the development of the approval film "doorway" is very clear, only by rationally mastering the context of its development, can it become its core player in the post-"upsurge" stage.

Original: Pang Hongbo  yuemuchina

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